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Old 02-20-2018, 07:57 AM   #1
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plane crash

My prayers and thoughts are with the victims and their families and friends

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKCN1G40T3
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:41 PM   #2
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Re: plane crash

Wow prayers sent. My guess is they were using those piece of crap Tuplov engines. When I was in Iran and in Russia I was on those planes those engines are BAD and they constantly malfunction. What a dam shame because Iran can't get Boeing they have to put inferior Tuplov engines, which was probably the cause of the crash 30 dead.

I am not going to get into the politics but htis really angers me because this tragedy could have been prevented. A year ago, 94 members of the world famous Red Army Choir, Alexandrov Ensamble died when their plane crashed in Syria.
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Old 02-21-2018, 05:08 PM   #3
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Re: plane crash

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Originally Posted by Sherwin View Post
Wow prayers sent. My guess is they were using those piece of crap Tuplov engines. When I was in Iran and in Russia I was on those planes those engines are BAD and they constantly malfunction. What a dam shame because Iran can't get Boeing they have to put inferior Tuplov engines, which was probably the cause of the crash 30 dead.

I am not going to get into the politics but htis really angers me because this tragedy could have been prevented. A year ago, 94 members of the world famous Red Army Choir, Alexandrov Ensamble died when their plane crashed in Syria.
No it was an ATR regional plane western made....
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Old 02-21-2018, 10:46 PM   #4
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Re: plane crash

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No it was an ATR regional plane western made....
Ah crap well that even makes it worse. I thought for sure it was a Tupelov plane, I did not know it was an ATR regional western made plane. Their safety/quality control manager should be canned.
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Old 02-22-2018, 06:59 AM   #5
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Re: plane crash

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Ah crap well that even makes it worse. I thought for sure it was a Tupelov plane, I did not know it was an ATR regional western made plane. Their safety/quality control manager should be canned.
ATR has a very bad record...there were several accidents around the world...In case of Iran the major problem is not if the passenger planes are Russian or western made... the major problem is the age of the fleet... because even the majority of Russian made planes Iran uses today were bought as second hand cheap deals (very often from countries like Azerbaijan or Uzbekisan)...cuz good maintained russian planes can perform similar to Western models if maintainance and service would be regulary done(maybe less comfort and luxury).. but in the 90's right after fall of soviet union, lot of former soviet union repulics including russian federation were facing huge ecconomical problems, there was almost no money for overhauling and maintainance,lot of pilots didn't recieve wages for long time, alcohol problems etc... so it wan't smart to purchase in those times older secons hand planes... but Iran couldn't buy new planes in the those times cuz of sanctions and Iran's Boeing and Airbus fleet was aging..

I mean remind you there are planes in Iran in service by some airlines which are since almost 50 years in service...lot of older planes like B-707 or 747SP you can worldwide only see in Iran flying for regular passenger service....so lot of crashes happened in last few years with older Boeings or Tupolevs in very bad shapes.... Now at least in case of passenger planes the sanctions are slowly lifted and Iran can hopefully slowly buy newer Airbus or even Boeingsor maybe the new moder russian Suckoi Superjet (although to be honest I would prefer to see more european Airbus and maybe modern Russian planes like Sukhoi superjet, because with US-planes after any election in USA suddenly new sanctions on IRAN could start and suddenly your fleets can't get the logisitc support) ... but it will take years till all airlines inside Iran would be able to fully renew their fleet and expect that a new and more professional safety culture is needed inside Iran..since lo of private airlines in IRAN are in very bad financial shapes and don't do a great job in therm of maintainance and repairs... IRAN needs to give the iranian national aviation association more power to even be able to ground entire fleet of bad airlines.....

and if there wouldnt be so many good experienced pilots in Iran we probally would have even a larger number of victims, since except the large number of crashes there was huge number of very critical emergency landings cuz of technical problems, without good performance of the pilots there would be even more victims (some unbelivable miracles)

some known cases

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TDCjhp3Wfk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoX7DTGHat8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DNZPmG1kKA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU3By2ZBwaM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd6uuOH1Nl0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0FMhhKnaLk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfkT_4o3hkI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jb238F5lD8E

Last edited by Sherwin : 02-22-2018 at 07:08 PM.
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Old 02-22-2018, 04:53 PM   #6
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Re: plane crash

That was a good review and you are correct, the problem in Iran is the age of the fleet. Some of these planes are in service dating back 50 years. I would not mind personally to see a combination of the three Boeing, Airbus or Suckoi or other Russian modern planes.

There are advantages to each model, the advantage of the Russian ones are with maintenance they can run for a long time. The modern ones also have some nice luxuries and amenities. These aren't your daddies Soviet piece of junks. We need to do something, sadly this will not be the last crash. My prayers and condolences go out to the family. BTW I just put a space in the middle your awesome post so others can read it easier and respond, no censoring editing lol.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:06 AM   #7
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Re: plane crash

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Originally Posted by Sherwin View Post
That was a good review and you are correct, the problem in Iran is the age of the fleet. Some of these planes are in service dating back 50 years. I would not mind personally to see a combination of the three Boeing, Airbus or Suckoi or other Russian modern planes.

There are advantages to each model, the advantage of the Russian ones are with maintenance they can run for a long time. The modern ones also have some nice luxuries and amenities. These aren't your daddies Soviet piece of junks. We need to do something, sadly this will not be the last crash. My prayers and condolences go out to the family. BTW I just put a space in the middle your awesome post so others can read it easier and respond, no censoring editing lol.
Sherwin jan, lets hope for better news from iranian civilian aviation..but it might Need lot of patience and hope, since till now 3 newer planes has been delivered and Trump already seems to try to sabotage the nuclear deal... Question is if USA would force Boeing and Airbus to deliver passenger jets to IRAN, Iran would again go back to same point as before..so lets hope European this time stay strong and ignore US-pressure... Another Problem expect the old fleet is the corruption inside Iran... the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization Needs more power and higher frequency of inspections by all Airlines operating in IRAN's sky (domestic and international) Any Airline which would not conform to safety standards must be warned and if necessary banned(No matter who's the owner of the Airline)...

To my Knowledge till mid february Airbus has delievered 3 new planes to IRAN(100 Airbus were ordered)
From Boeing it is not yet sure,even there was an agrement that IRAN would recieve 50 B737 and 30 B777 (but I guess it depends on Trump's moods)







And Iran seems to soon sign a deal for buying 12 Suckoi superjet (there are rumors Iran even think about a license production in Iran.. that would at least be interesstingidea, since if Iran produce a smaller passenger jets like Suckoi Superjet inside IRAN, at least the domestic and regional flights could continue even there would again be sanctions in future



if Boeing wouldn't deliever cuz of political pressure of Trump's governemnt... Iran still can try to get some deal with another nation...(Tu-204, Il-96 from russia or from Embraer Company from Brazil=

Embraer

Last edited by Ali_Europe : 02-23-2018 at 09:52 AM.
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Old 02-23-2018, 11:31 AM   #8
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Re: plane crash

Wow since Feb you are telling me we only have three new Airbuses, that is it three wow that is bad! The question I have since Trump is the "Business man" shouldn't he be for Boeing upgrading Iran's fleet? I mean that means
1-More jobs for Boeing, which means more jobs for Americans so it will help USA's GDP out.
2-It will also help spread some good will and restore USA's bad image and reputation, in that part of the world.

My question is is there any aspect of Iran society where corruption is not a factor? The Iranian Civil Aviation Organization being corrupt does not surprise me, it would have surprised me if they were not corrupt. After all this is the same "Party Bazi" culture of Iran we are talking about, not much has changed even going back to Shah's time, we still had this problem. There are always going to be "back door deals" or "contracts" awarded to foreign interests to those who know how to "play ball."

I happen to agree with you that we need a lot of patience. Iran is not a Western Country, although there is corruption in the weest as well, see USA and Western Europe. Only difference between USA/Western Europe and countries like Iran or Russia is they know how to hide it better. The Russians are just blunt about it and do not care if you think they are corrupt, same mentality with Iran/Iranians.

Let's hope for a few things
1-Europe ignores the pressures of the Trump administration. Usually, in the past, Europe would just go along with USA's program. Let's see and hope things are different this time. The cold war might be over but the west still listens to the USA and the East still listens to Russia, for the most part. Those two still call the shots in Europe and have more clout than people think. Just like in mathematics and science, there is more than one variable factor. Corruption in the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization, politics is another and funding or lack of funding can be the other factor.

2- The government is going to need to spend some money here. We have several viable options. Boeing, although politics can dereal that. The other options are Airbus and modern Russian planes. These are not your daddies Soviet piece of junks, from former SSR Reubliks such as Azer, Uzbek e.t.c from the 80s, 1/2 a century ago. The modern planes will rival the luxuries and technology of their western counterparts. I think healthy competition is good we just need to play the wait and see game. The main thing is I agree we as Iranians MUST be Patient above everything else. You can't replace an entire outdated fleet in just a matter of a few days or months, it is going to take time. By the way very nice pictures you can see the improvements in the technology. There are two advantages of the Russian planes.

1-They are more durable-I will try to find the video later but they compared Russian models to their American Boeing and European Airbus counterparts. You can throw crap at the propellers and the Russian plane will still fly. If a bird get's stuck in the American or European ones, the plane will go down so you have to be more careful, a bit more skilled of a pilot.

2-Maintenance-As you mentioned you just need to maintain those Russian planes and they can go forever, some are in Iran's fleet from 50 years ago, in the 80s. There is a reason why they lasted this long.

3-Amenities and Luxuries-The advantage that the American and European models had before was they were more comfortable and luxurious but not anymore. When discussing American/European vs Russian planes, one cannot have preconceived notions or prejudices of the past because that does not apply to today.
hat is like comparing Honda or Toyota from the 80s to today's models. Back in the 70s and 80s Japanese cars were piece of junks but now they are some of the best in the world, they are neck and neck with their German counterparts. To me, they have easily surpassed the American big 3. Anyways just my take and thoughts good post and nice pictures. That helps people who are more visual but you gave enough technical data for the analytical people so job well done.
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:27 PM   #9
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Re: plane crash

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Originally Posted by Sherwin View Post
Wow since Feb you are telling me we only have three new Airbuses, that is it three wow that is bad! The question I have since Trump is the "Business man" shouldn't he be for Boeing upgrading Iran's fleet? I mean that means
1-More jobs for Boeing, which means more jobs for Americans so it will help USA's GDP out.
2-It will also help spread some good will and restore USA's bad image and reputation, in that part of the world.

My question is is there any aspect of Iran society where corruption is not a factor? The Iranian Civil Aviation Organization being corrupt does not surprise me, it would have surprised me if they were not corrupt. After all this is the same "Party Bazi" culture of Iran we are talking about, not much has changed even going back to Shah's time, we still had this problem. There are always going to be "back door deals" or "contracts" awarded to foreign interests to those who know how to "play ball."

I happen to agree with you that we need a lot of patience. Iran is not a Western Country, although there is corruption in the weest as well, see USA and Western Europe. Only difference between USA/Western Europe and countries like Iran or Russia is they know how to hide it better. The Russians are just blunt about it and do not care if you think they are corrupt, same mentality with Iran/Iranians.

Let's hope for a few things
1-Europe ignores the pressures of the Trump administration. Usually, in the past, Europe would just go along with USA's program. Let's see and hope things are different this time. The cold war might be over but the west still listens to the USA and the East still listens to Russia, for the most part. Those two still call the shots in Europe and have more clout than people think. Just like in mathematics and science, there is more than one variable factor. Corruption in the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization, politics is another and funding or lack of funding can be the other factor.

2- The government is going to need to spend some money here. We have several viable options. Boeing, although politics can dereal that. The other options are Airbus and modern Russian planes. These are not your daddies Soviet piece of junks, from former SSR Reubliks such as Azer, Uzbek e.t.c from the 80s, 1/2 a century ago. The modern planes will rival the luxuries and technology of their western counterparts. I think healthy competition is good we just need to play the wait and see game. The main thing is I agree we as Iranians MUST be Patient above everything else. You can't replace an entire outdated fleet in just a matter of a few days or months, it is going to take time. By the way very nice pictures you can see the improvements in the technology. There are two advantages of the Russian planes.

1-They are more durable-I will try to find the video later but they compared Russian models to their American Boeing and European Airbus counterparts. You can throw crap at the propellers and the Russian plane will still fly. If a bird get's stuck in the American or European ones, the plane will go down so you have to be more careful, a bit more skilled of a pilot.

2-Maintenance-As you mentioned you just need to maintain those Russian planes and they can go forever, some are in Iran's fleet from 50 years ago, in the 80s. There is a reason why they lasted this long.

3-Amenities and Luxuries-The advantage that the American and European models had before was they were more comfortable and luxurious but not anymore. When discussing American/European vs Russian planes, one cannot have preconceived notions or prejudices of the past because that does not apply to today.
hat is like comparing Honda or Toyota from the 80s to today's models. Back in the 70s and 80s Japanese cars were piece of junks but now they are some of the best in the world, they are neck and neck with their German counterparts. To me, they have easily surpassed the American big 3. Anyways just my take and thoughts good post and nice pictures. That helps people who are more visual but you gave enough technical data for the analytical people so job well done.
as you correctly mentioned, lot of patience will be needed.

I think in case of civilian aviation the big difference to Military aviation is, that the major focus is on ecconomical Outcome... if you order fighter jets or decide to start license production, you try to not be too dependent on others or focus more parthnerships with countries which would more agree on your long therm strategical interessts..in case of civil aviation, you have to calcualte lot of ecconomical factor, cuz at the end it is a business... I think as long USA has the hostile behaviour to IRAN, maybe canceling the Boeing deal would be smart and focus on getting Airbus and some Russian or Brazilian civilian jets...

but USA often uses their pressure on other nations to slow down any trade with IRAN

right now, These are the confirmed official orders of IRAN
Orders by Airbus (till mid february three planes delievered)


orders by Boeing (till mid february delivery: ZERO)


in case of Suckoi Superjet there were several unconfirmed rumors: first it was mentioned that 12 would be ordered, than there was talk about license production...right now
negotiations between Suckoi and some Iran are continuing, not final results confirmed

but with this speed, as sherwin also mentioned, we Need to be patient, cuz it will take few years for fleets to be renewed and Crews recieve trainigs on new planes...

Last edited by Ali_Europe : 02-23-2018 at 04:34 PM.
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Old 02-24-2018, 09:42 AM   #10
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Re: plane crash

Wow I did not know the ratio was that bad so if we ordered 171 Airbuses and only received 3, that means for every 57 we get one.

BTW I am well versed in Russian, American and European models: Boeing, Airbus, and Suckoi but not so much the Brazilian civilian jets. I mean I know Brazil is the economic giant of South America and their economy's GDP is in the top 10 so it wouldn't shock me. It's just when you think of countries that produce civilian planes, Brazil is not the first country that pops into your mind.

We both see eye to eye on this.
1-There is always going to be corruption in Iran be it politics, military sports and aviation is no different. This problem dates back to Sha's time this is not a recent phoenomeon that started after the Revolution. We have a "parti bazi" culture or a culture of bribery.

I think it is wise to cancel the contracts with Boeing and focus on Airbus and Suckoi or Russian planes. Since Airbus also happens to be taking their sweet time, maybe for now focus on the Russian ones. The three advantages of Russian ones are
1-Easy to maintain you can throw crap at the propellers and it will still keep going. With the American and European models Boeing and Airbus if a bird goes through it, the plane is going down.
2-They last a very long time we have planes from the 80s and like you said we got a lot of those 2nd hand from former SSR republics.
3-These planes are not our daddies Soviet piece of junk, they have a lot of luxuries.

On top of improving our aging fleet, like in the military how we discussed we need to improve our defense capbilities ie radar, we need to modernize and upgrade our technology in those Iranian airports. Of course all these things cost one thing $$$ and Iran is not financially doing well right now because of sanctions and other factors. We know that USA is going to put pressure on Airbus and European nations but the only European nation that stands up to USA is Russia.

We have a good relationship with Russia, we let them use our military base, we have joint military exercises and usually perform well in the Russian military war games. Iran placed 5th out of all of the countries, last time I checked, Russian Federation #1 shocker. Rather than kissing Europe or USA's rear end why not focus on the Russians who won't snob us?
The main thing is as my Commanding Officer told me when I wanted to be an officer, my first day on the ship, "Patience is mastery son, you will get there but be patient." Us Iranians have a problem with patience and I am no different but military developed that for me. Iranians can learn patience but we just kind of want everything NOW and that is not realistic. On top of being patient, we need to be realistic with our time frame and expectations Ali jan.
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